Trump’s oil plans meet market glut in 2025

Trump's promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply.

President-elect Donald Trump’s friendly oil policies could boost U.S. crude production beyond the currently estimated growth.

However, Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill” and the promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply. This higher production from non-OPEC+ producers is set to tilt the market into a large surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ keeps its current commitment to begin bringing back supply from April, analysts and forecasters say.

At the current state of affairs, supply is expected to exceed demand by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. But market observers know that geopolitics will surely play a role in oil prices going forward. And they concur that the biggest wildcard is Trump’s policy toward Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as potential tariff impacts on energy prices in America, its economy, and global economic growth.

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Source: Oil Price

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