Tag Archive for: oilprice

Last week, US crude inventories posted an unexpected rise, with the API reporting a build of 4.91 million barrels.

Oil demand likely to surprise to the upside

Oil prices have recorded the biggest weekly decline in three months thanks in large part to challenging economic indicators and growing demand concerns. Last week, U.S. crude inventories posted an unexpected rise, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a build of 4.91 million barrels, a sharp contrast from the anticipated decrease of 1.1 million barrels. This build has come after reports that U.S. crude production surged to 13.15 million barrels per day in February, up from 12.58 million barrels in January, suggesting supply is outpacing demand.

But it’s not just bearish crude oil metrics driving the oil price decline. The EIA has provided an initial estimate that U.S. gasoline demand declined 4.4% Y/Y in April, a negative sign for oil bulls that has triggered a rapid pivot by speculative funds towards the short side of the market. However, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have argued that the demand pessimism is overblown. According to StanChart, there appears to be a systemic downwards bias in the weekly estimates of U.S. fuel demand, with actual gasoline demand exceeding estimates in 22 of the past 24 months, while distillate demand (mainly diesel) has been revised higher in all of the past 24 months. The analysts point out that last September, the EIA put gasoline demand at 8.014 million barrels per day (mb/d), a stark contrast from the 9.465 mb/d recorded for in September 2022. Across the whole month, the EIA data implied a y/y demand drop of 5.6%, eliciting talks of demand destruction with some experts contending that demand was at its weakest since 1999. However, it later turned out that actual gasoline demand only fell 0.4% Y/Y, far milder than the EIA estimate of a 5.6% decline. StanChart believes the EIA’s estimate for April gasoline demand is too low with actual demand likely to be surprise to the upside.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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Crude oil price settles around 80.00$ barrier and keeps its stability above it to support the chances of continuing the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis.

Crude oil price awaits more rise amid bullish trend

Keeps its Stability Above It

Crude oil price settles around 80.00$ barrier and keeps its stability above it. To support he chances of continuing the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis. Organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart. Noting that our next targets begin at 81.55 and extend to 82.70.

The current market dynamics suggest that there is a potential for further upward movement in the upcoming trading sessions. It is crucial to keep a close eye on the price levels, particularly the minor support at 79.70. A break below this support level could trigger a temporary decline in the price. Leading to a test of key support areas starting from 78.70 and potentially extending to 78.25 before any significant attempt at a resurgence.

Investors and traders should monitor these support levels closely. As they can provide important cues about the market sentiment and future price movements. Testing key support areas is a common occurrence in trading patterns and often precedes a new attempt at upward movement. By staying informed and vigilant, market participants can make well-informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities that may arise as the price fluctuates in response to changing market dynamics.

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Source: economies.com

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Escalation of Israel-Hamas war into Middle East-wide conflict would disrupt oil supplies and stoke food prices, says World Bank

World Bank warns oil price could soar to record $150 a barrel

World Bank Oil Price

World Bank warns oil price could soar to a record high of more than $150 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to a repeat of the full-scale conflict in the Middle East witnessed 50 years ago, the World Bank has warned.

In the first major assessment of the economic risks of an escalation of the war beyond Gaza’s borders, the World Bank said there was a risk of the cost of crude entering “uncharted waters”.

A “large disruption” scenario comparable with the Arab oil boycott of the west in 1973 would create supply shortages that would lead to the price of a barrel of oil increasing from about $90 to between $140 and 157. The previous record – unadjusted for inflation – was $147 a barrel in 2008.

World Bank Oil Price

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Source: The Guardian

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