Tag Archive for: drillbabydrill

China's oil demand may peak as it shifts to green energy, while Trump pushes U.S. to boost fossil fuel production.

When peak Chinese oil demand meets ‘drill, baby, drill’

What happens when the world’s largest oil producer goes all-out to boost production just as the appetite of the world’s largest oil importer may be peaking? Demand from China — which has accounted for half of all world oil demand growth over three decades — shows signs of levelling off thanks to slowing economic expansion and an epochal shift to green power and electric vehicles. Returning US President Donald Trump has, meanwhile, declared a national energy emergency intended to boost fossil fuel output, and begun to reverse the Biden administration’s green agenda. In theory, these dynamics might lead to an oil glut and falling prices. The reality is more complex.

The US-China divergence is at root about competing visions of energy security. Beijing’s embrace of renewable energy reflects less a noble conversion to saving the planet, and more a strategic determination to reduce dependence on imported oil. Conversely, alongside the popularity of his “drill, baby, drill” mantra among consumers balking at the costs of the green transition, Trump does not want the US to rely on a green energy supply chain dominated by China.

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Source: Financial Times

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Trump's promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply.

Trump’s oil plans meet market glut in 2025

President-elect Donald Trump’s oil plans on policies could boost U.S. crude production beyond the currently estimated growth.

However, Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill” and the promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply. This higher production from non-OPEC+ producers is set to tilt the market into a large surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ keeps its current commitment to begin bringing back supply from April, analysts and forecasters say.

The current state of the oil market indicates a significant shift in the supply-demand equation, with projections suggesting that supply could surpass demand by approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming year. This oversupply scenario raises important questions regarding pricing dynamics and market stability, as an excess in supply often leads to downward pressure on oil prices. However, seasoned market observers are acutely aware that the interplay of geopolitics will significantly influence oil prices moving forward. Factors such as international relations, regulatory changes, and geopolitical tensions can create volatility that may counteract the anticipated supply surplus.

Geopolitical Factors

Among the myriad geopolitical factors at play, former President Trump’s have policies toward key oil-producing nations. This is specifically Iran, Venezuela, and Russia—emerge as the most significant wildcard influencing future market conditions. The potential for sanctions, trade agreements, or military actions could have far-reaching implications for global oil supply and pricing structures. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding tariffs on energy products could also reverberate through the American economy, affecting domestic energy prices and, by extension, the broader global economic landscape. As such, stakeholders across the energy sector must remain vigilant and adaptable, closely monitoring these developments to navigate the complexities of an evolving market environment.

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Source: Oil Price

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Trump's return may spark a boom in US natural gas, as LNG exports grow, tech demand rises & companies shift focus from oil to gas production.

Drill, Baby, Drill 2.0: Why Trump’s return will bring blockbuster years for natural gas

In October 2008, the economy reeling from the onset of the Great Recession. Oil prices having spiked to $147 per barrel ($211 in today’s money). Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden was asked during a debate to contrast his party’s energy policy with that of the Republicans. Biden said that their “only answer is drill, drill, drill. Drill baby we must, but it will take 10 years for one drop of oil to come out of any of the wells that are going to be drilled.”

His vice presidential opponent Sarah Palin pounced; “The chant is ‘drill, baby, drill.’ And that’s what we hear all across this country… because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into.”

Biden and Obama won that election, though Biden woefully underestimated American ingenuity. During the Obama years drillers boosted natural gas production by 45% to 92 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), while oil output more than doubled to 9 million barrels per day (bpd).

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Sarah Palin, the then-governor of Alaska and the Republican vice presidential nominee, seized the opportunity to emphasize the urgent demand for domestic energy resources. In her rallying cry, she declared, “The chant is ‘drill, baby, drill.. And that’s what we hear all across this country. It is because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into”. This statement resonated with many Americans who were increasingly concerned about rising energy prices and the nation’s reliance on foreign oil. Palin’s remarks highlighted a growing sentiment among the electorate, advocating for the exploration and utilization of domestic energy reserves as a means to achieve energy independence and alleviate economic pressures faced by households across the nation.

Fervent Calls for Increased Drilling

Despite these fervent calls for increased drilling, Joe Biden and Barack Obama ultimately emerged victorious in the 2008 election. Biden underestimated the resilience and adaptability of American ingenuity in the energy sector. The Obama administration witnessed a remarkable transformation in energy production. The advances in technology and drilling techniques led to a significant surge in domestic output. Natural gas production soared by an impressive 45%. It was reaching approximately 92 billion cubic feet per day. On the other hand, oil production more than doubled. It’s climbing to roughly 9 million barrels per day. This dramatic increase not only underscored the potential of American energy resources. It also contributed to a shift in the global energy landscape, positioning the United States as a leading producer of both oil and natural gas.

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Source: Forbes

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