OPEC projects robust oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026

OPEC forecasts 1.4 mb/d global oil demand growth in 2025, driven by non-OECD countries, with supply growth led by the US, Brazil, and Canada.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that covers major issues affecting global oil markets and provides the outlook for crude oil market developments. OPEC has reiterated its earlier forecast that global oil demand will expand at a robust clip at 1.4 mb/d in 2025, largely driven by strong non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) growth. OPEC sees non-OECD demand growth clocking in at 1.3 mb/d, compared with just 0.1 mb/d for the 38-member international alliance. According to OPEC, this robust demand will continue in 2026 with global oil demand forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d Y/Y. Again, non-OECD countries will do the heavy lifting with demand growth expected to come in at 1.3 mb/d vs. 0.1 mb/d for OECD.

On the supply side, OPEC has forecast non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) to grow by 1.1 mb/d Y/Y in 2025, mainly driven by production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is expected to clock in at 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the U.S., Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, DoC supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 90 tb/d Y/Y in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, and by 0.1 mb/ Y/Y in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d.

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Source: Oil Price

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