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supply concerns

Oil prices surged this week as hurricane season began, demand improved, and both U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell. This triggers supply concerns. Rising geopolitical risk around the world only added to bullish sentiment.

Friday, June 21, 2024

The onset of hurricane season in the US is improving demand figures. It is corroborated by shrinking crude and product inventories. It is becoming more visible Chinese buying have come together to lift oil prices to their highest since early May. The market was also reminded of the dysfunctional Red Sea navigation with the Houthis sinking another bulker this week, adding upward pressure to oil prices.

Chevron-Hess Merger Stalled by Arbitrage Delays.

Three months have passed since the case for a contract arbitration panel on Chevron’s planned takeover of Hess’ Guyana assets was filed. Still, there is no final arbitrator selected, delaying the $53 billion merger.

Alberto Becomes the New Scare for the Gulf. 

A storm system has made landfall in Mexico’s northeast regions. It is becoming the first named tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with Tropical Storm Alberto bringing heavy rains that disrupted lightering operations in Corpus Christi and Beaumont.

Here Comes the New PE-Backed Gas Giant.

US private equity giant Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG) will form a new Mediterranean-focused oil and gas company after purchasing Energean’s (LON:ENOG) assets in Italy, Croatia, and Egypt for $945 million, naming former BP boss Tony Hayward as its new CEO.

Europe Approves 14th Russia Sanctions Package.

The European Union approved a 14th package of sanctions against Russia that bans re-exports of Russian LNG in the EU, however steering clear of banning LNG imports per se, whilst also blocking any financing for Russia’s planned Arctic and Baltic LNG terminals.

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Source: Oil Price

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oil prices on track

Crude oil prices on track are about to book another weekly gain, boosted by the Energy Information Administration’s latest inventory report.

On Thursday, the EIA reported draws across crude and fuels, suggesting the strong driving season some analysts expected may be unfolding indeed. A report by the AAA forecasting record travel over the July 4 weekend also helped boost optimism on the oil market.

The AAA projected this week that the holiday weekend would see a record 71 million people take to roads and airports, which would be a 4.8% increase over last year’s July 4 weekend. This would add to evidence that while many Americans are finding life harder in an environment of high interest rates and still substantial inflation, traveling has not been among the things they’ve cut back on.

“People may be willing to cut back on goods, but they’re not cutting back on experiences,” AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Weekly jobless claims report

Additional support for prices, which have gained some 10% since the start of the month, came from the latest weekly jobless claims report. It showed a decline in the number of people filing for jobless benefits for the first time, suggesting the labor market was going in a positive direction that could finally motivate the Fed to start cutting rates.

The U.S. central bank has resisted rate cuts despite growing inflation pains among consumers with the argument that inflation has further down to go before the cuts begin. Changing trader sentiment about these rate cuts has driven oil price movement for months now.

On the demand front, China remains a downside risk, one Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst told Bloomberg, noting growth has been weakening.

“Over the near term, we think China’s oil demand growth disappointing market expectations is the key downside risk to consider,” Vivek Dhar said.

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Source: Oil Price

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The EIA forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3M barrels per day this year, an increase of 8% over 2023

Once again, the Permian Basin is expected to lead growth in the nation’s overall oil production as per EIA.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3 million barrels per day this year. This is an increase of 8% over 2023 and accounting for nearly half of all crude production.

Permian production will contribute about two thirds of all US oil production through the end of 2025. This is according to the EIA’s June Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA expects increased production from the Permian. It also affect regions since it will drive US production to record highs in both 2024 and 2025.

“The Permian region’s proximity to crude oil refine and export terminals on the Gulf Coast. It established takeaway capacity and improved new well productivity to support crude oil production growth in the region,” the EIA wrote in its June 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

“Without a doubt, the mighty Permian Basin is the major factor. It makes Texas the 8th largest economy in the world”. This is what Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association, commented to the Reporter-Telegram by email.

“The Permian Basin leads US energy production. It single-handedly contributing nearly 45% of domestic oil production, thanks to its phenomenal reserves, private sector investment in infrastructure, and Texas’ welcoming business climate that includes a stable regulatory environment,” he continued.

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Source: mrt

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Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May.

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday, recovering losses from earlier in the session as U.S. crude inventories fell.

Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May, according to official data from the Energy Information Administration. The decline was a surprise compared to industry data that indicated a 509,000 barrel buildup.

Prices have come under pressure as of late on rising inventories with U.S. stockpiles surging in the last week of April.

“Oil market indicators have turned softer in recent weeks, and prices have declined from recent peaks,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note. “The oil market is not tight now, but we see seasonal strength ahead in coming months.”

Here are Wednesday’s closing energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate – June contract: $78.99 a barrel, up 61 cents, or 0.78%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has risen 10%.
  • Brent July contract: $83.58 a barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.51%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen 8.5%.
  • RBOB Gasoline – June contract: $2.53 per gallon, down 0.46%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up about 20%.
  • Natural Gas-  June contract: $2.19 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.91%. Year to date, gas is down 13%.

Oil prices have fallen more than 7% since reaching their April highs when traders bid up prices on fears that Iran and Israel would go to war. Investors have largely sold off the war premium since then, with Morgan Stanley removing $4 per barrel of risk from its oil price forecast for the year.

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Source: CNBC

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Oil prices have bounced back after the last OPEC+ announcement sent them crashing, and the US Federal Reserve could send them higher still with optimistic messaging.

Oil markets were eagerly anticipating the start of peak driving season in the summer. On the other hand, gasoline demand so far has been mostly disappointing. This is with US consumption some 2% lower year-over-year. So will oil prices climb continue?

– Asia has been the first continent where gasoline weakness led to refinery run cuts. This is a glut of light distillate supply has pushed Singapore gasoline cracks below the $5 per barrel mark.

– US gasoline cracks are notably higher than elsewhere. Currently, it is around $22 per barrel. The high US refinery utilization rates create a lot of downside for gasoline, especially as gasoline stocks are the highest since 2021 for this time of the year.

– The pressure on gasoline might increase further down the line as this year’s two main refinery newbuilds, Nigeria’s Dangote and Mexico’s Olmeca, are both delayed and will not start up in time for the summer season.

Market Movers Due to Oil Prices Climb

– US refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) agreed to sell its 25% stake in the Rockies Express Pipeline for some $1.28 billion including debt to privately owned Tallgrass Energy which owns the remaining 75% stake.

– Commodity trading giant Trafigura has agreed to pay a $55 million fine to settle charges of fraud and manipulation from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, having traded misappropriated Mexican gasoline.

– French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) sold its Brunei upstream business to Malaysian exploration firm Hibiscus Petroleum for $260 million, using those funds for further Namibia drilling.

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Source: Oil Price

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Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is expected to rise by nearly 8% this year. It accounts for nearly half of US crude oil production.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production in the Permian Basin, which spans western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is expected to rise by nearly 8% this year. The basin accounts for nearly half of U.S. crude oil production.

On Tuesday (June 11), the EIA released the June Short-Term Energy Outlook that shows crude oil production in the Permian Basin will average about 6.3 million barrels per day in 2024, up almost 8% from 2023. The increased production in this and other regions will contribute to successive crude oil production records in the United States in 2024 and 2025.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently introduced an enhancement to its Short-Term Energy Outlook reports by incorporating detailed regional forecasts for the primary oil and natural gas production areas in the United States. This development reflects the agency’s commitment to providing a comprehensive and granular analysis of energy trends across the country. By specifically focusing on key regions such as Appalachia, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Permian, the EIA aims to offer stakeholders, policymakers, and industry experts a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics shaping the energy landscape at a local level.

Inclusion of Regional Forecasts

The inclusion of these regional forecasts not only enables a more detailed assessment of production trends. Moreovre, it also facilitates a deeper exploration of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics in specific geographic areas. This new approach underscores the EIA’s dedication to delivering insights that support informed decision-making. The strategic planning within the energy sector is also seen. This sheds light on regional variations in oil and gas production. Also, the EIA’s expanded Short-Term Energy Outlook reports serve as a valuable resource for industry professionals. More are now seeking to navigate the complexities of the US energy market with greater precision and foresight.

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Source: TB&P

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Matador Resources Company has announced the acquisition of Permian Basin oil and gas properties from Ameredev II Parent, LLC for $1.9B.

Deals, Oil and Gas M&A – Matador Resources Company has announced the acquisition of Permian Basin oil and gas properties from Ameredev II Parent, LLC for $1.9 billion. This deal includes a 19% stake in Piñon Midstream and enhances Matador’s existing portfolio with high-quality assets in Lea County, New Mexico, and Loving and Winkler Counties, Texas.

The recent acquisition by Matador Resources marks a significant milestone in the company’s growth and strategic expansion efforts. With the addition of over 33,500 net acres in the Delaware basin, Matador’s total acreage now exceeds 190,000, solidifying its position as a key player in the oil and gas industry. Furthermore, the acquisition boosts the company’s production capabilities, with current production levels exceeding 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and proven reserves totaling over 580 million barrels of oil equivalent. These impressive figures not only demonstrate Matador’s commitment to enhancing its asset base but also highlight the potential for increased free cash flow and profitability in the future.

Prolific Permian Basin

By strengthening its presence in the prolific Permian basin, specifically the Delaware sub-basin, Matador Resources is strategically positioning itself for sustained success in the competitive energy market. The addition of 431 operated drilling locations further enhances Matador’s operational scale and drilling inventory, providing ample opportunities for future growth and development. As a result of this acquisition, Matador’s growth trajectory is expected to accelerate, with market valuation projections now exceeding $10 billion. This strategic move underscores Matador’s commitment to driving value for shareholders while leveraging opportunities in one of the most productive regions in the United States for oil and gas exploration and production.

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Source: Oil Price

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For now, gas prices are right around where they were last year, at $3.49 per gallon

Thousands of miles away from Americans budgeting for their summer road trips. OPEC+ leaders decided Sunday to stick with crude-oil production cuts lasting through 2025. This is while laying out a plan to begin phasing out another tier of output curbs beginning in the fourth quarter.

Though crude-oil prices are easily the top cost inside a gallon of gas. Drivers at the pump shouldn’t expect big price moves as a direct result of the OPEC+ decision, gas experts say.

Gas-price increases could hinge on what type of hurricane season comes to the Gulf Coast. Its oil refineries later this summer they note. Weather forecasters have been bracing for a very active hurricane season.

Americans have been holding their breath on upcoming expenses, with many looking to road trips as affordable summer fun.

But first, put it in reverse to see what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided at its Sunday meeting.

OPEC+ agreed to extend two different production cuts totaling 3.66 million barrels day through 2025. These curbs were supposed to conclude at the end of this year but were widely expected to be rolled over into next year.

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Source: Market Watch

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American oil and gas companies have cut back on methane emissions even as production reached record heights, a new analysis shows.

The US oil and gas industry continues to extract record amounts of fossil fuels, despite climate activists’ calls to ​“keep it in the ground.” But while oil and gas extraction has increased in recent years, the carbon emissions from that industrial activity have actually fallen, a new analysis has found.

Even as fossil gas production rose by 40 percent from 2015 to 2022, methane emissions from gas extraction fell by 37 percent, according to a study of Environmental Protection Agency data published today by climate nonprofits Ceres and the Clean Air Task Force. That finding suggests that when energy companies want to, they can effectively reduce emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with 82 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over 20 years, and 30 times the warming potential over 100 years. Overall greenhouse gas emissions, which count the industry’s considerable carbon dioxide releases, also fell, but by a more modest 14 percent.

There’s a clear playbook for tackling the planet-warming emissions that result from combusting fossil fuels in power plants or vehicles. But the extraction of those fuels happens farther from public view, and adds up to a major source of industrial emissions. Indeed, oil and gas extraction and refining emitted more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other industrial subsector last year, the Rhodium Group reports. And while power and transportation emissions are falling, heavy industry is on track to become the largest emitting sector within the next decade.

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Source: Canary Media

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Hess Corp approved the company’s $53 billion merger with the No. 2 U.S. oil company Chevron, according to preliminary results of the vote.

Hess shareholders on Tuesday approved the company’s $53 billion merger with the No. 2 U.S. oil company Chevron. This is according to preliminary results of the vote.

The merger required a majority vote. It is to approve the deal by a majority of Hess’ 308 million shares outstanding to pass. The company did not immediately provide the vote tally.

Chevron offered to acquire Hess last October in a move to gain a foothold in oil-rich Guyana’s lucrative offshore fields. The deal has been stalled by an ongoing review by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and clouded by an arbitration claim filed by Hess’ partner in Guyana, Exxon Mobil and CNOOC.

The result is a win for Hess CEO John Hess. It puts to rest claims by some shareholders who wanted additional compensation for the delay in closing the sale. Exxon’s arbitration could push the deal’s closing into 2025.

“Assuming Chevron wins the arbitration from Exxon or finds a settlement, the transaction is now going to happen,” said Mark Kelly, an analyst with financial firm MKP Advisors.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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