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Gasoline Pipeline

A cyberattack during the weekend caused the shutdown of the Colonial pipeline. It currently carries some 45 percent of the gasoline and diesel fuel the East Coast of the U.S. consumes. This is what the media have reported. It denotes the attack could threaten the security of the gasoline supply and push up prices.

Gasoline futures immediately jumped on the news of the attack, adding 2 percent.

Colonial Pipeline Co. learned on Friday that it had become the target of a cyberattack. This is according to the Wall Street Journal. They said, “it took certain systems offline to contain the threat, which has temporarily halted all pipeline operations.”

The New York Times reported that Colonial Pipeline Co. had declined to say when it will reopen the pipeline, fueling fears about the supply of gasoline on the East Coast.

Reuters cited experts as saying the outage will not have an impact on prices at the pump unless the Colonial pipeline remained shut for more than three days.

The Colonial pipeline is the biggest pipeline infrastructure in the United States, running 5,500 miles from Houston to Linden, New Jersey, carrying some 2.5 million barrels of gasoline and diesel daily.

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Source: Oil Price

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M and A

M and A in U.S. oil and gas fell by 1.49 percent below the 12-month average last month, according to GlobalData. The biggest deal by far for the month was Chevron’s acquisition of Noble Midstream Partners, which fetched $1.32 billion.

The Noble Midstream Partners deal represented about a fifth of the total value of March deals, Offshore Technology reports, citing GlobalData figures, with the total standing at $5.14 billion across 66 deals. The number of deals in March was in line with the 12-month average, which stood at 67 deals.

In terms of types of deals, mergers and acquisitions were by far the most. These accounted for 66.7 percent of all dealmaking in March and 44 of the 66 deals. Venture capital funding came in second, accounting for 19 deals, and private equity financing came in third with barely three deals.

M&A activity in the U.S. oil and gas industry was slow to take off during the pandemic as everyone retrenched and waited to see how the situation developed before going on the hunt for discount assets. The second half of 2020 saw, however, some huge deals.

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Source: Oil Price

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Untapped Oil Play

Writing the article on this year’s Top Oil Wildcats! And guess what? It is not because the prospect turned out to be sub-commercial. It remains one of Africa’s most interesting untapped plays. Potentially opening up a new country with no previous exposure to the world of energy. Senegal and Mauritania started to break their way onto the energy maps of Western Africa. Guinea Bissau has remained a relative outlier. The lack of official recognition of discoveries does not necessarily mean a lack of hydrocarbons. As can be attested by the Atum prospect. Atum remains one of the hottest plays in offshore Africa, an overlooked gem that would only need a little bit of political stability to shine. Learn More about Africa’s Most Interesting Untapped Oil Play here.

There are recent big discoveries in Senegal’s offshore. This includes FAN-1 and SNE (the latter being the largest oil discovery globally in 2014). Shortly after that, there are new plays in Mauritania’s offshore. To mention some are such as Orca, have unearthed an untapped frontier area that is rich in both oil and gas.

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Source: Oil Price

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offshore-oil

Oil remains, by far, the most dominant source of energy worldwide, with the EIA estimating that the world consumed 92.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2020, despite a 9% decline due to the pandemic.

As the world’s biggest polluters such as the U.S. and China become more aggressive with their climate goals, the biggest oil and gas companies that shoulder the biggest responsibility for GHG emissions and are likely to feel the heat the most.

Interestingly, the world’s 5 biggest oil and gas companies (in terms of revenue) are from China and Europe, with U.S.’ giants ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) coming in lower at #6, #8, and #9, respectively.

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Source: Oil Price

Image Credit: Wikipedia Commons

natural-gas

Natural gas production in the US is set to grow to a new record in 2022, at 93.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and will continue to rise further, exceeding 100 Bcfd in 2024, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. As a result, the performance of the country’s key gas basins is going to attract increased interest from investors and markets, with CO2 emissions intensity, capital efficiency and potential bottlenecks drawing close scrutiny.

The country’s output reached a record in 2019, at 92.1 Bcfd, but production declined subsequently to 90.8 Bcfd in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rystad Energy expects that 2021 volumes will fall even further, to 89.7 Bcfd but the trend will quickly change as the effect of the pandemic subsides and activity builds up across the country’s major gas basins.

Rystad Energy’s analysis reveals that the Appalachian Basin was US’ best-in-class in 2020 when it comes to CO2 emissions intensity, and the region is set to report a record-high capital efficiency in 2021, as reinvestment to maintain output will drop to its lowest ever. Meanwhile, the Haynesville play will offer the largest gas output growth going forward, risking bottlenecks unless more pipelines are approved.

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Source: Oil Price

Peak Oil Demand

Jet fuel and petrochemicals are expected to fuel crude demand this decade. Moreover, oil demand in the transport sector is set to peak by 2026. This is one year earlier than originally anticipated. Goldman Sachs believes oil demand will peak in 2026. Then, BP Plc believes the highest global demand growth is already over. Now, the International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks the peak could come later, in 2030. However it’s framed, it is clear that the oil and gas industry is facing a turbulent future.

The adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is expected to increase sharply over the next decade, driving down the demand for oil to power road transportation. According to Deloitte, we can expect a CAGR of 29 percent for the EV industry between now and 2030, with sales expected to increase from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million by 2025, and 31.1 million by 2030.

It is thought that China will account for around 49 percent of the global EV market share, with Europe following at 27 percent and the USA with a 14 percent market share. Developed countries are expected to drive EV demand over the next decade until growth levels out in the 2030s.

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Source: Oil Price

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oil-rig

By now, those of you who read about my top New Year’s stock pick, Recon Africa, will have learned that this small-cap explorer may have just moved one giant step forward in Namibia’s Kavango Basin.

Beyond my wildest imagination, this small-cap explorer set out to drill three wells to prove up the existence of indicators of petroleum systems in Namibia.

They may have proved it in the first drill.

Some results are just in and this play may have just been hugely de-risked.

But it looks like they did much more than that. They encountered oil and gas indicators, too.

If you scooped up shares in Reconnaissance Energy Africa (“Recon Africa”) (TSXV:RECO, OTC:RECAF) when I first recommended it, I’m sure you’ve been watching its remarkable rise with great interest.

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Source: Oil Price

world-needs-oil

Has peak oil demand already come and gone? That’s an exceptionally hard question to answer. There are some experts that say unequivocally, yes. They claim that peak oil is already upon us, thanks to the crushing blow that the Covid-19 pandemic dealt to global oil demand as well as the ever-escalating worldwide transition toward clean energy. But there are just as many who say that the world’s thirst for oil still has a long way to go before we hear its swan song.

Regardless of whether oil demand has peaked or plateaued during the pandemic, what is undeniably true is that the world is going to burn a whole lot more oil in the future before the global community is able to decarbonize entirely – a goal that is still a long, long way off, no matter who you ask.

“The world is expected to burn hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in the coming decades,” Bloomberg Markets reported this week. “That gives plenty of incentive for giants like Total or Royal Dutch Shell Plc, plus the hundreds of smaller explorers that remain in business, to keep searching the world’s frontiers for the next place to sink their drill bits.”

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Source: Oil Price

oil-production

Over the past 60 years, U.S. oil production has seen its ups and downs. From the decline that began in 1970 through the fracking boom of the 2000s, U.S. presidents have overseen a wide range of oil production changes.

As I have explained previously, a president often benefits from the actions of his predecessor. For example, President Carter benefitted from President Nixon’s decision to approve the Alaska Pipeline, and Presidents Obama and Trump benefitted from the pro-fracking regulations of the President George W. Bush administration.

Thus, this article shouldn’t be seen as crediting particular presidents for the oil production that took place while they were in office. Generally, those trends were set in motion years earlier.

With that in mind, below I present the change in oil production during each presidential term since 1960. For presidents that served two terms, I broke it into two parts. Nixon’s term consists of about 5.5 years, and due to Nixon’s resignation Gerald Ford’s term was about 2.5 years.

Here are the terms:

  • John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK): 1961 – 1963
  • Lyndon Baines Johnson (LBJ): 1963 – 1969
  • Richard Milhouse Nixon (RMN): 1969 – 1974
  • Gerald Rudolph Ford (GRF): 1974 – 1977
  • Jimmy Carter (JC): 1977 – 1981
  • Ronald Wilson Reagan (RWR): 1981 – 1989
  • George Herbert Walker Bush (GHWB): 1989 – 1993
  • William Jefferson Clinton (WJC): 1993 – 2001
  • George Walker Bush (GWB): 2001 – 2009
  • Barack Hussein Obama (BHO): 2009 – 2017
  • Donald Trump (DT) 2017 – 2021

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Source: Oil Price

If you have further questions about any U.S Oil production topics, feel free to reach out to us here.

us-oil-production

U.S. oil production remains about 2 million bpd lower than its pre-pandemic levels. Still, methane emissions are already back to their levels from before the coronavirus. Worrying as this is in itself, it could also threaten energy companies’ long-term growth prospects because investors’ priorities are changing. What investors want from oil and gas now is not just stable returns but a lower carbon—and methane—footprint.

The Financial Times reported recently, citing data from the Environmental Defense Fund, that methane emissions in the U.S. shale patch had rebounded to pre-pandemic levels already, after dropping sharply as oil and gas production dropped last year amid the pandemic. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, although it dissipates faster in the atmosphere and has recently been garnering growing attention from regulators, environmentalists, and, now, shareholders.

“The investor community that stuck with [the shale industry] is the steady ones, that want discipline, that want predictability,” Regina Mayor, global head of energy at accounting major KPMG, recently told Forbes in an interview. “That’s the investor base they are all pandering to now. The growth investors are gone.”

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Source: Oil Price