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Drilling activity in the US oil and gas output increased by 51.3pc on an average yearly basis in 2022, driving crude production up to 11.9mn bl/d and marking a 6.4pc increase compared with the 11.2mn bl/d averaged in 2021. The increased output was augmented by US companies completing a large backlog of drilled-but-uncompleted (Duc) wells in two major oil shale basins.

WTI started 2022 at $83.22/bl and climbed steadily throughout the year, despite rising interest rates, fears of economic recession, and restricted Russian supply caused by the war in Ukraine. Crude prices hit a 15-year high in June 2022, at $114.84/bl, before falling back down and ending the year at $76.44/bl.

In 2024, we forecast that crude oil production in the Permian will increase by 350,000 b/d, while production in the GOM declines slightly. We forecast that production in other U.S. crude oil-producing regions increases by 70,000 b/d in 2024.

We forecast the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price will average $77 per barrel (b) in 2023 and $72/b in 2024, down from $95/b in 2022. Despite declining crude oil prices, we expect the WTI price will remain high enough to support crude oil production growth, especially in the Permian, where data from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicate that average breakeven prices range from $50/b to $54/b.

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Source: PE Media Network

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Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022. It will break it again in 2023. This is the first breach for two straight years between 2012 and 2013. The company claims that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for “the highest growth in a decade in the next two years,”. It will have a $214 billion growth of new project investments lined up.

The energy market intelligence provider outlines an expectation of offshore activity to account for 68 percent. It is for all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024. It will be up from 40 percent between 2015-2018. This is as global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources.

Rystad highlights that offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years. It will be up from just 29 percent from 2015-2018 in terms of total project count.

Furthermore, the new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market. With supply chain spending to grow 16 percent in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. In line with this, offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage, and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.

Leading Global Drivers on Offshore Oil and Gas

Rystad underlines that one of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East. This is as offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others for the first time. It was lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi ArabiaQatar, and the UAE.

The region’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. Rystad underscores that these countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.

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Source: Offshore Energy

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Oil prices rise by more than 1% on Friday. This is after better-than-expected U.S. employment data. Both benchmarks fell more than 3% on the week on U.S. interest rate hike jitters.

Brent rose $1.19, or 1.5%, to $82.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $76.68.

Expectations of further rate hikes in the world’s largest economy and in Europe have clouded the global growth outlook. It is due to both crude benchmarks down this week.

However, the U.S. Federal Reserve may have less reason to raise interest rates as aggressively as some is fearing. After a government report on Friday. it gives hopes of easing inflation amid signs the pandemic-disrupted labor market is normalizing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned of higher and potentially faster rate hikes, saying the central bank was wrong in initially thinking inflation was “transitory”. Its next monetary policy meeting is planned for March 21-22.

“Oil prices are fluctuating wildly on renewed fears of Fed interest rate increases,” said Price Group analyst Phil Flynn.

A strengthening dollar is also making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Global shares, which often move in tandem with oil prices, hit a two-month low as investors dumped banks.

Broader U.S. employment data for February beat expectations with nonfarm payrolls rising by 311,000, compared with expectations of 205,000 jobs added, according to a Reuters survey. This is likely to ensure that the Fed will raise interest rates for longer, which analysts have said would weigh on oil prices.

On the supply side, major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Iran, both members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, re-established ties after days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing.

U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 590 this week, their lowest since June, according to data from Baker Hughes.

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Source: Street Insider

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The offshore oil and gas (O&G) sector is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years. It is with $214 billion of new project investments in line. Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) will break the $100 billion threshold. This is a projection in 2023 and in 2024 – the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013.

As global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources, offshore is back in the spotlight. Offshore activity is expected to account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024. This is up from 40% between 2015-2018. Comparisons against this period are prudent as it predates the Covid-19 pandemic and related oil price crashes. In terms of total project count, offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years. This is up from just 29% from 2015-2018.

The New Offshore Oil And Gas Investments

These new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market. With supply chain spending to grow 16% in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. Offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.

One of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East. For the first time, offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others, lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The area’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. These countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.

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Source: Oil Price

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top energy trader

Oil prices could hit the $90-$100 per barrel range in the second half of this year as global demand is set to reach record levels amid constrained supply, Russell Hardy, CEO at the world’s largest independent top energy trader, Vitol Group, told Bloomberg Television on Monday.

“The prospect of higher prices in the second half of the year, in the sort of $90-$100 range, is a real possibility”. This is what Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview.

According to Hardy, global oil demand will rise by 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2023. This is in comparison to 2022 and will reach a record level. It was driven by a jump in diesel, naphtha, and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) demand.

“You don’t have much room on the supply side is the reality. So the potential for a rally is certainly there”. Hardy told Bloomberg.

The Peak Oil Demand

Peak oil demand is expected to come around the end of this decade. This is amid rapid decarbonization, but investment in oil supply will still be needed, Vitol’s top executive said.

Major U.S. shale operator Pioneer Natural Resources also sees $100 per barrel by the end of the year. Meanwhile, some banks are not convinced prices will hit triple digits in 2023.

With a significant pickup in Chinese demand, Brent Crude prices “will break $90 this summer. It will climb back up to $100 sometime in the second half of the year”. Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield said earlier this month.

Brent Crude prices are not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023. This is unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again. This is what JPMorgan said this month. Russian crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), according to the Wall Street bank.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday. It erases the previous session’s losses as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about U.S. interest rate hikes. It is dragging down consumption in the world’s biggest economy. Here is how oil rebounds

Brent crude futures for April, which expired on Tuesday, settled higher by $1.44, or 1.8%, at $83.89 a barrel. The more active May contract rose $1.41, or 1.7%, to $83.45.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.37, or 1.8%, to $77.05 a barrel.

“We’re getting to a point where we’re seeing some short-covering. It is because it’s the end of the month,” said Price Group analyst Phil Flynn.

For the month of February, Brent fell about 0.7%, while WTI dropped about 2.5%.

Expectations of demand recovery in China underpinned gains, with the market awaiting key data over the next two days. Economists polled by Reuters expected that factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy grew in February.

“China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for commodities higher, with oil positioned to benefit the most,” JPMorgan analysts said in a client note.

Urals crude exports to China from Russia’s Western ports rose in February from the previous month, on lower freight costs and rising demand, Reuters sources said.

Oil prices are expected to rise above $90 a barrel toward the second half of 2023 as Chinese demand recovers and Russian output falls, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

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Source: Reuters

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Oil prices rise on Thursday on expectations that Russia will cut its oil exports more than previously announced.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $80.79 per barrel at 9.35 a.m. local time (0635 GMT), up 0.24% from the closing price of $80.60 a barrel in the previous trading session.

At the same time, American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $74.14 per barrel, a 0.26% rise after the previous session closed at $73.95 a barrel.

A bigger output cut by major oil producers will put pressure on global supply.

Russia is expected to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, but reports indicate that the country may cut supply even further. The country is reducing its supply in response to Western sanctions against Russian oil exports.

The EU ban on Russian seaborne oil products, as well as a price cap of $100 per barrel on premium Russian oil products such as diesel, and a price cap of $45 per barrel on discounted products such as fuel oil, went into effect on Feb. 5.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak warned at the beginning of the month that Western countries’ price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products could cause supply problems on the market.

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Source: AA

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Texas Oil and Natural gas

Several bills are supporting the Texas oil and natural gas industry. The goal is to protect consumers from California-style regulatory policies.

State Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Fort Worth, and Rep. Brooks Landgraf, R-Odessa, filed companion bills. The bills are SB 1017 and HB 2374 which will protect Texans’ energy choices. If enacted into law, local government entities would be prohibited from banning the sale of engines. This is based on their fuel source according to the bill language.

Restrictions in Texas Oil and Natural Gas Industry

“California-style restrictions on engines or fuel sources that limit consumers and business owners from being able to access the energy sources they need have no place in Texas,” Birdwell said.

The legislation would prevent political subdivisions from adopting or enforcing ordinances, orders, and regulations. This includes similar measures to limit access to specific fuel sources or prohibit the sale of engines based on their fuel source. Political subdivisions include counties, municipalities, special districts, school districts, junior college districts, or housing authorities. The purpose is to prevent these entities from banning the sale of gas-powered lawn equipment, generators, and other small engines similar to what was done in California in 2021. The following year, California moved to restrict the sale of gasoline-powered cars.

The Legislation

The legislation will “ensure that Texans are free to make their own choices. This is without interference from government,” Landraf, said, and “protect energy choice.”

The Texas Oil & Gas Association praised the proposal. They issue a statement saying, “Misguided attempts to ban the use of particular types of engines or even specific fuel sources only serve to disrupt the lives of consumers and business owners who rely on affordable, reliable energy sources.”

Rep. Tom Craddick, R-Midland, and Landgraf also filed bills to redirect tax money to the oil and natural gas industry. It pays back to their local communities by creating a new fund. Craddick’s is the Generate Recurring Oil Wealth (GROW).

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Source: The Center Square

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The global oil and gas industry profits in 2022 jumped to some $4 trillion. It is from an average of $1.5 trillion in recent years. This is what the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol said on Tuesday.

Despite those profits, countries depending on oil and gas revenue should prepare to reduce their reliance on petroleum. This is as demand is going to fall in the longer term, Birol told a conference in Oslo while speaking via video link.

“Especially the countries in the Middle East have to diversify their economies. In my view, the COP28 (climate summit) could be an excellent milestone. It will change the destiny of the Middle East countries” Birol said.

“You cannot anymore run a country whose economy is 90% reliant on oil and gas revenues. It is because oil demand will go down,” he added.

United Arab Emirates as an OPEC Member Oil and Gas Industry

This year’s United Nations climate talks will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a member of the OPEC group of oil-producing countries.

The United Arab Emirates comprises seven emirates – Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm Al-Quwain – located along the southeast coast of the Arabian Peninsula. The country covers an area of around 84 thousand square kilometers and has a population of around 9.5 million. More than one million people live in the capital, Abu Dhabi. Arabic is the country’s official language.

Since the discovery of oil in the UAE, the country has become a modern state with a high standard of living. The currency is the dirham.

The United Arab Emirates President is HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The country joined OPEC in 1967.

Did you know?

  • Desert Park in the Sharjah Emirate is a center for the breeding of the endangered Arabian leopard. It is thought that very few of these cats exist in the wild.
  • The first commercial oil was discovered in 1958 – onshore in the Bab-2 well and offshore at Umm Shaif.

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Source: Reuters

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Permian Strategic Partnership (PSP) President and CEO Tracee Bentley made a compelling case. It is for the positive impact of oil and natural gas production. The impact on local communities during her testimony before the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources at The University of Texas Permian Basin Midland Campus on Feb 13.

The hearing “Federal Energy Production Supports Local Communities,” shows an opportunity for Bentley. They are to showcase the Permian Strategic Partnership’s extensive contributions towards education, healthcare, and workforce initiatives. This was helping them to strengthen the communities where the PSP operates.

In her remarks, Bentley highlighted the PSP’s nearly $125 million worth of investments and $975 million in collaborative investments for the Permian Basin. In 2022 alone, the PSP invested $32.6 million in education, workforce, healthcare, and road-building initiatives. These programs will support crucial social and economic infrastructure in both West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico.

“Our work is made possible through our members’ vision and long-term commitment to our region and communities,” Bentley said. “By supporting responsible energy development, you are supporting our efforts and investment in an area that the U.S. and the world will rely on for decades to come.”

Permian Strategic Partnership Focus

The Permian Strategic Partnership has focused significant efforts on improving public education, healthcare, and workforce development since its founding five years ago. The partnership of twenty oil and gas companies operating in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico has invested over $47 million in education initiatives across the Permian Basin, supporting local public schools, universities, teachers, and students.

“Our work for future generations begins with investing in education. Polling of PSP’s member company employees has shown that public education is the single greatest factor in evaluating a location change, and it is equally important to families already living in the Permian Basin,” Bentley said.

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Source: World Oil

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